Tuesday, 29 April 2014

29-04-2014

Today's Trading Journal


1) The initial fall of about 75 pts was too fast and unexpected.  However, it was BO of low of last five trading days.


2) BOF of RH.  This was a wrong trade.  See the origin of the move, it was BOF of range low.  BPB of Range High was a better trade.  Here critical mass would get trapped which was on the short side from morning.
See how that BPB trade worked.



3) BOF of MSP/Range Low. It was a good trade.


4) BOF of PDL/BRN/NS RN. It was also a good trade.


5) BOF of LOD/RN.  Entered above pin bar high.  It did not move as expected.


Trades by ST from Nifty Nirvana.


Monday, 28 April 2014

Thursday, 24 April 2014

Monthly Data


Here is a summary of monthly data as a ready reckoner whenever Jan monthly high is crossed on a monthly basis, the lowest low it made after crossing the Jan high and highest high and its month.  For example, in year 2012 once it closed above 5217, it made lowest low of 4770 in the month of June and highest high of 5965 in the month of December 2012.

 
High Lowest Low Month Highest High Month
Jan-14 6358        
Jan-13 6112 5972 Nov 6415 Dec
Jan-12 5217 4770 June 5965 Dec
Jan-10 5311 4786 May 6338 Nov
Jan-09 3147 3478 May 5221 Dec
Jan-07 4167 4002 Aug 6185 Dec
Jan-06 3005 2595 June 4046 Dec
Jan-05 2120 2171 July 2857 Dec
Jan-03 1105 1089 July 1914 Dec






It seems like one needs to be ready to see a maximum fall of 10-15% from the Jan month high. One can also expect similar type of gains conservatively.

Followup

This post is for followup on the earlier post

Do you want to know where the markets will move rest of the year?


You all now know that whenever nifty index closes above January High on monthly basis, for rest of the year it is safe to assume that nifty is going to go up.

Monthly data for year 2013 is as follows:


DateOpenHighLowClose
Dec 20136171.156415.256129.956304.00
Nov 20136289.756342.955972.456176.10
Oct 20135756.106309.055700.956299.15
Sep 20135480.256142.505318.905735.30
Aug 20135776.905808.505118.855471.80
July 20135834.106093.355675.755742.00
June 20135997.356011.005566.255842.20
May 20135911.406229.455910.955985.95
Apr 20135697.355962.305477.205930.20
Mar 20135702.455971.205604.855682.55
Feb 20136040.956052.955671.905693.05
Jan 20135937.656111.805935.206034.75

Here Jan month high is 6111.8.  Nifty closed above it on monthly closing basis in Oct 2013. In month of May and Sep it tried to go above the high of 6111.8 but could not give a close above it.  Only in Oct it gave a close of 6299. Rest is the history.  Nov and Dec were fantastic. It touched high of 6415 in Dec 2013.

Now the year 2014 so far till date April 24, 2014.

DateOpenHighLowClose
Apr 20146729.506861.606650.406840.80
Mar 20146264.356730.056212.256704.20
Feb 20146058.806282.705933.306276.95
Jan 20146323.806358.306027.256089.50
.
The Jan month high of 6358 has been conquered in March by giving a close of 6704. So now we already have a buy signal on index.  Use every dip to buy because we know rest of the year we are going to see the index making new highs. It seems to be a fantastic year ahead.....