Thursday, 31 July 2014

31072014


Nifty opened full gap up.
1) BO of IRH.  Went long above first candle high as BPB of PDH. It did not move.  Loss of 7 points.
2) BPB of IRL.  It remained in the range for a very long time making a cigarette pattern.  Finally broke IRL/DO and bounced from PDH as expected but it did hold the flip where I entered. Then moved nicely.  Booked it around RN with profit of 51 points.

Wednesday, 30 July 2014

30072014


Nifty opened 10 points above PDC and initial range got formed within the MC.

1) BPB of IRL.  Entered after PP formation.  It did break PDL after some fight at the level but could not sustain.  Booked at 11 points of profit on break of the flip.
2) BOF of PDL.  It shot up like anything. Kept the SL at swing low which got me out early before the move matured at PDH.  Profit of 40 points.  This trade reminded me of the post "Liquidity Pool" wonderfully written by ST from niftynirvana.blogspot.in.

Monday, 28 July 2014

28072014


Nifty opened 11 points above PDC.  Initial range formed between BRN and PDC.
1) TST of IRH/DO.  Took this riskier trade as initial move was down plus was getting rejected from DO.  It moved nicely as expected breaking PDC and PDL.  Booked it when failed to move further down.  Profit of 56 points.
Then it traded in a range.  No other trades.

Was it a type I trend day that we usually see after a reversal day?  If yes, then was it a short term top in place on daily chart?

Friday, 25 July 2014

25072014


Nifty opened 6 points below PDC, at lower extreme of prev. day’s closing range (MSP).
Initial range formed sandwiching yesterday’s MSP and then broke IRL.
1) BPB of IRL. Target was BRN for this trade.  Booked at around BRN when it came back above BRN after breaking it. Profit of 11 points.
2) BO of Range Low after PP formation. It did break the PDL but failed to move further down. Booked at 15 points of profit.

Thursday, 24 July 2014

24072014


Nifty opened slightly below PDC.
1) BPB of IRH.  It moved well as expected to PDH.  Booked it below failure bar.  9 points of profit.
2) BPB of PDC on downside.  I was not very confident but took this trade.  Scratched it when it failed to move down further.  Loss of 3 points.
3) BPB of PDC on up side.  After the entry it pulled back deep close to the initial SL but then moved well.  After breaking the PDH it went up like rocket.  Booked it at around day close.  39 points of profit.

Wednesday, 23 July 2014

23072014


Nifty opened full gap up of 30 points, just above BRN 7800.  But initial move was down, broke the BRN down and most of the gap got filled. IR formed.
1) BOF of IRH/BRN.  Attempted this CT trade as the initial move was down. As expected it could move at least to IRL.  Booked it around there with the profit of 9 points.
2) BOF of LOL IRL and PDH/PDC.  This did not move as expected.  Had to scratch it at breakeven.

Missed the BPB of PDH trade as I could not place the order in time.

Also missed the last up move as I could not find the proper entry point.

Tuesday, 22 July 2014

22072014


Nifty opened gap up above BRN.
1) BPB of PDH.  It moved well and got resisted at RN 7750.  Booked at 21 points profit.
2) BPB of Range Low.  It almost touched IRH and reversed. Had to scratch at 3 points of profit.
Missed the last up move.  Could have entered above HOD then, but was not confident.

Monday, 21 July 2014

21072014


Nifty opened full gap up and above BRN 7700 but there was no momentum on the up side.
So avoided going long above IRH.
1) BPB of PDH.  Expected this to at least close the gap but it did not and reversed immediately.  Loss of 6 points.
2) BPB of BRN. This also failed.  Loss of 5 points.
3) BOF of Range Low.  Took this trade as I expected it to remain in the range. Booked it around other range extreme. Profit of 15 points.

Friday, 18 July 2014

Replay The Market




MT4's "Strategy Tester" is a multifunctional window where traders can test trading strategies (objective rules for trade entry, exit and management) with historical data.

Its ability to test and optimize a trading idea prior to placing it in a live market with real money is an invaluable step in the development of a profitable trading system.  It will also help you train your brain.

There is no need to download historical data as it has the same in-built.  It has a visual mode where you can replay all the market action bar by bar as if you are trading the live market.  All this is free.  You do not need to spend hundreds of rupees on buying costly trading softwares for this purpose.

I have made a small video demonstrating how to use “Strategy Tester” for market replay on Nifty 3-minute time frame chart.  This is how I taught myself how to use Tester and set up the chart.  If you know the better way to do, please share your method.

Go ahead and watch it and make the maximum use of it.


18072014


Nifty opened full gap down.
1) BPB of PDL on down side.  It moved well and tested the BRN but could not break it. Scratched it at profit of 3 points.
2) BPB of PDL on up side. It tested my patience initially but then moved as expected.  Booked it when it could not sustain above PDH.  Profit of 22 points.
3) BO of HOD.  I thought this would move well but it did not. Had a loss of 4 points.

Thursday, 17 July 2014

17072014



Nifty opened 20 points gap down but within the previous day's closing range.
1)  BOF of Range Low.  It did not move as expected.  Scratched it at breakeven.
2) BOF of PDH.  I expected this to move at least up to range low but it did not.  Again scratched it at breakeven.

It was a narrow range bound day. 

Wednesday, 16 July 2014

16072014


Nifty opened full gap up.
Could not trade BOF of IRH in the morning as I was busy with my work.
1) BOF of PDH.  Booked it when I felt it was unable to break IRH. Profit of 9 points.
2) BO of IRH / Pressure Play. Entered above HOD but it was a failure.  Loss of 10 points.
3) TRAP.  This went up like rocket.  Booked it at day close. Profit of 78 points.

Tuesday, 15 July 2014

15072014


Nifty opened full gap up.
1) BPB of PDH.  Went long above IRH. It did not move as expected.  Loss of 9 points.
2) BPB of BRN/IRL/DO.  It filled the gap as expected and broke PDC but could not move further down.  Booked at 17 points of profit.
3) BPB of PDH / Pressure Play.  Went long above BRN.  It got resisted at IRL and reversed.  Booked loss of 9 points.
4) TRAP. After moving up, it pulled back deep to the entry point and tested the patience. Booked at around HOD.  Profit of 22 points.

Monday, 14 July 2014

14072014


A choppy day, ended up taking 5 trades.
1) BPB of PDL.  This failed immediately.  Ended in a loss of 10 points.
2) BOF of PDC.  This also got rejected quickly and ended in a loss of 10 points.
3) BOF of LOD.  Took this trade as by this time I was totally convinced that Nifty is going to be range bound.  It proved me right this time.  Booked it at around HOD.  Profit of 30 points.
4) BOF of PDC/HOD.  It did not go to LOD as expected.  Had to scratch it.  Profit of 1 point.
5) BOF of BRN/ HOD.  A long wick of the BO candle gave me confidence to enter in the trade.  Booked at 7 points of profit.  

Friday, 11 July 2014

11072014


Today I have tried to mark all the possible trades which I could perceive during the day on the chart.
Total 9 trades were possible.  I took only 2 out of them.

Trade C:  BOF of BRN.  I took this trade as I felt it was just stalling at BRN and was not able to break it. FTA DO/IRL was 20 points away.  It broke the FTA and then PDC. Booked it when I suspected it was not going down further. Profit of 43 points.

Missed the Trade E as I went for a lunch.

Trade F:  This also moved well.  Booked when it failed to move down further.  Profit of 32 points.

Among other trades, I think B and E were good tradeable moves whereas A D G H I did not provide good entry point.

Thursday, 10 July 2014

10072014



Union Budget Day.  Just watched the price movement and avoided trading till 2:30 pm and took the only trade as BPB of BRN 7700 when it signaled FTC at the top.  Booked it at end of the day.  Profit of 139 points. 

Wednesday, 9 July 2014

09072014


Nifty opened just above PDL PDC after a big down move yesterday.  I expected no one-sided move today but rather range bound as tomorrow is budget announcement.
Missed the initial few hours of trading as I was busy with my work and could not concentrate on market.
1) BOF of HOD.  Entered below the BOF candle. Booked it when I felt it was not going down PDL. Profit of 20 points.
2)  TST of HOD. Again entered below the BOF candle. It hesitated some to move down below PDL but finally broke it.  Booked it at LOD. Profit of 58 points.
There was a barbed wire pattern around PDL, so not traded it and tried to trade the range extremes only.

Tuesday, 8 July 2014

08072014


Nifty opened above PDH but got sold immediately.
1) BPB of BRN PDC.  It moved as expected and broke PDL.  Covered when it failed to go down further.  Profit of 25 points.
Then waited for the Railway Budget to get over.
2) TST of PDL. It went well. Booked it at BRN. Profit of 59.
3) BPB of BRN.  Took this riskier one as there was a good momentum to downside, though it had already fallen a lot. Booked it at the end.  Profit of 50 points.

Monday, 7 July 2014

07072014


Nifty opened just above PDH/PDC and tried to break the BRN above.  Since Friday was a big volatile day, I was expecting today a quiet range bound day.

I waited for the IR to form. Then there was a BOF of BRN.  Avoided this CT trade as I was expecting range bound day and there was no enough space.

Then there was a BO attempt below IRL. Again avoided it for the same reason.
1) BPB of PDH/PDC IRL.  Next time when the BO on downside again happened, I entered it.  It did not move.  Booked loss of 9 points.
2) BOF of Range Low.  As expected earlier in the morning, nifty remained range bound so far. So attempted BOF.  Entered above the MC. My target was around Day High.  It moved as expected but missed the target by couple of points.  Booked when it came back into the range, below BO candle. Profit of 12 points.

Whole day Nifty remained in a narrow range creating a Barbed wire pattern around PDH.

Sunday, 6 July 2014

What to do?

There may be a question in a trader's mind about the entry pattern when he perceives a good trade setup at the DP or a range as to whether to enter on direct breakout or on pull back.  He knows direct BO has odds in favor of failure and in case of pull back, he knows he may or may not get good pull back to enter and he may miss the trade if the prices just run away without giving a pull back. So the question is what should one do?

We all know direct BO's mostly fail.  Many a times there is a false break of BO point by a couple of points.  So if someone decides to enter on BO, then another question comes, how many points away from the breakout point?  1 point, 2 points , 3 points or more points away from the BO point/highest high or lowest low to avoid the false breakout.

Whereas in case of pull back, entry point is clear.  It is just a point away. But there is uncertainty.  We may get a pull back, we may not.

Today while doing a trade simulation on historical chart, I came across the same dilemma.  What to do?  In fact, few traders raised the same question in last few days.
Here is a chart, step by step...

The chart is from October 3, 2013.


Here, Nifty opens full gap up, above PDH.  So the bias is positive. Then the initial range gets formed.  I have taken both moves, first down and then up, to form an initial range.

Now we look for the opportunity to go long above IRH.  It could be direct BO entry or the entry on PB.  For direct BO entry, as a usual practice one would like to go long a point above the IRH and for PB entry, one would wait for it to happen.  Lets see what happens next...


As you can see, there is a false break of IRH by 1.15 points.  So If someone had put a trigger price about a point or less away, there are chances that it would have got triggered.  So now in the trade.
Lets see what happens after that..


You can see as most of the BO trades fail, this one also failed triggering a SL order 10 points below the entry.  It was a false break out and trapped the trader who entered on the BO.
So now we have only one option left and that is to let it break successfully and then enter on PB.
Lets first see whether it breaks....


Wow...it successfully breaks the IRH.  Now we can wait for a PB and then enter.

So now lets wait for the PB and see whether we get a PB or not...


Oh..no..it ran up to the target without giving a PB.  Missed the train...

After citing this example, now I pose a question to you.  What would have been probably done in this situation?
A) Enter on direct BO with a SL trigger order 1 point away from the high.
B) Enter on direct BO with a SL trigger order 2 points away from the high so as to avoid false break.
C) Completely avoid BO and wait for pull back and entry only on pull back.
D) None of the above.  A different trade plan.

What do you do generally on such setups?  Are you entering on direct BO in such setups?  Do you allow for some room to avoid false BO?  or you prefer only PB's and completely avoid BO?

Please kindly select your preference A, B, C or D and let me know your preference in the comments section below.  You can also give your opinion or feedback about the same.  After your feedback, if possible we will take this discussion forward and try to find out the ideal situation.

Thanks for your support in advance.

Friday, 4 July 2014

04072014


1) BO of tight range around RN.  It moved as expected.  Booked at PDL.  Profit of 12 points.
2) BPB of PDC.  Entered below PDL. Moved well.  Booked at 32 points of profit.
3) BOF of BRN.  Moved very well.  Trailed it successfully till end of the day.  Profit of 78 points.

Thursday, 3 July 2014

03072014


1)  BOF of PDH PDC RN:  Profit of 2 points.
2)  BOF of LOD:  Profit of 2 points.

Wednesday, 2 July 2014

02072014


Trade 1.
Trend (Daily)    Up
Today's open    Full gapup of 44 points with trend, also above BRN 7700
Initial move      Down
Initial Range     Formed, above all ranges
Feeling is that should go long as everything suggests price is going up

Where?          Go long above IRH as BPB PDH BRN

Space             FTP is NS BRN, about 10 points away, but will be in all time high zone
Critical mass/
Order flow     Not much significant, but maybe new poistions get added
Risk              15 points if SL is kept below IRL
Conclusion:    SCORE is not much favorable, but try to attempt with little risk, keeping the SL below BO bar, as trend, open and all time high zone favor.

1) BPB PDH BRN:  Entered above the high.  Initially it resisted around NS BRN, then went up. Booked when it started hoovering around NS BRN.  Profit of 6 points.

2) BPB HOD:  Went long after the formation of PP.  Again here RN was near, but it finally broke it.   Booked when it came back below RN. Profit of 9 points.

TRADE SCORE helps me a lot in assessing the situation and taking the informed decision.  It keeps the emotions away.

Does it help you?







































Tuesday, 1 July 2014

01072014


Nifty gaped up about 23 points at PDH.  First candle acted as MC.  Did not go for short below the MC as bias was up. Initial range formed.
1)  BPB of PDH RN.  Went long above the high of first candle (MC). It got rejected.  Booked loss of 7 points.
Did not attempt any counter-trend trade.  I feel there were two opportunities to buy at range low as marked on the chart.  Hesitated to go long there and missed them.
Used my broker's chart today as there was some problem updating the GCI MT4 chart in late afternoon.