Sunday, 31 January 2016

About Me

Something about me

My name is U.R. Dave.  I am a full-time trader now.  I mainly day trade Nifty Future and Options, sometimes Bank Nifty and in the evening if I get time I trade MCX Crude Oil, Nickel and Silver using a 3-minute candlestick chart without any kind of indicators.  I am still a small trader, trading with either 5 lots of Nifty Future or 10 lots of Options.  My personal near term goal is to reach to the level where I can trade with at least 100 lots regularly in next few years.  My ultimate aim is to own a proprietary trading firm employing hundreds of traders from different parts of world.

My trading journey so far

I started my journey in the stock market in year 2003, if I remember correctly, when the FPOs of ONGC and IBP hit the market.  Initially I invested through IPOs only.  I am a science graduate, I do not know much about accounting and at that time I did not know any person doing investing or following market in the family, relatives, or friends. I had to learn the rules and regulations of the market on my own.

My journey was going very smooth as the market was moving in only one direction that was up.  Then the devil came in year 2008.  I lost lot of money trading in bear market and learned my lessons hard way.

After learning my lesson, I seriously started thinking about learning the trading and this was the time when real journey of learning the trading started in year 2010.  I started with learning conventional technical analysis.  After learning it some and experimenting it on the markets, later I got inspired by the blog called, Justnifty.  Trading the Nifty with mechanical kind of approach fascinated me.  So I decided to try the SAR system, stop and reverse, and followed the signals and traded the Nifty mechanically for some time, but I failed.  When I tried to analyse my failure, I realized the system was not for me.  I decided to move on and in my quest for a good, the ultimate trading system, I stumbled upon the blog called Nifty Nirvana. After the initial hiccups, I started learning the price action trading and the learning process went on smoothly.  I started applying the newly learned methods with my existing knowledge base and developed sort of my own style.  I learned that any method which is not based on the basic market behavior ignoring the reality of the dual auction process will fail to make money in the long run.  Profitable trading is very simple. Win one out of two trades and win more than the losing trade.

Something about this blog

I started blogging in year 2012. I mainly write about day trading and the trading concepts that I use. I regularly publish daily posts on my trades at end of the day and as readers say, they find it very beneficial in their learning.

If your passion is same as mine, i.e. the day trading, then please spread the word and keep visiting this blog regularly.

I can be reached at charttechnicals@gmail.com

Saturday, 30 January 2016

Free Live Amibroker



Today I have made a small video demonstrating how to fetch real-time as well as historical data from NEST terminal and feed it to Amibroker trial version for the charting purpose.  Also I have tried to demonstrate the usefulness of the utility called "bar replay" in price action trading.

Just do the following two steps:

1) Download and install Amibroker trial version. Click here for download.  It is free to use.
2) Watch this video and follow the whole process as shown in the video.  Click here for that and to set up your Amibroker with the data.

So, after doing these two simple steps and following the whole process correctly, you now have a world class charting software with real-time data, and that too absolutely free. Try it and make the maximum use of bar replay.

The binary file that is required can be downloaded from here

You can also watch the tutorial videos on Amibroker by clicking here

Enjoy..



Friday, 29 January 2016

29012016


Today Nifty broke out of range compression that happened over the last two days in the form of double inside days.  After breaking out it traded in only one direction that is up resembling type 1 trend day, so not posted the chart.

Could spot two good trade setups in the evening session for Crude Oil as marked. The ongoing higher volatility is paying good for the traders.

Thursday, 28 January 2016

Nifty Future 28012016


Another inside day. Only one good trade setup was there as marked. In late afternoon there was some expiry drama around RN.

Wednesday, 27 January 2016

Quiz 1

I am starting to post a sort of quiz from today.  Below is the Nifty Future chart.  I have marked two rectangles in it.  Closely look at the price action which happened before the formation of these rectangles.  The quiz question is, what kind of price action led to formation of these rectangles? In other words, why this range-bound move happened and took the form of rectangles?

Post your answers into the comments.  You don't need to hesitate.  Write down whatever comes to your mind.



CrudeOilM 27012016


Lets see whether PP setup triggers in next few minutes. BRN above can be ignored.


It got triggered as marked and booked at 2110.

Nifty Future 27012016


Today it traded in two ranges as marked. There were three potential trade setups to trade as marked, out of which two yielded good results.

Tuesday, 26 January 2016

Webinar on Trading Psychology

I just watched the webinar on trading psychology by Mr. Madan.  The duration is about 3 hours but it is really worth spending time for it.  Click here for the recorded webinar.

Monday, 25 January 2016

Saturday, 23 January 2016

Reality of 100% Accurate Trading Calls


I am sure you would have been tempted at least once in your life by reading the ads like "Jackpot call," "100% accurate stock tips with guarantee," "99.9% guaranteed profit," "Enjoy daily profits" but wondered whether it is really possible.  The answer is yes, it is possible.  One can guarantee such returns in stock trading and those who make such claims provide free trails to try it out so that you can trust them and opt for the subscription. But wait for a moment and think how is it possible?

Lets learn the modus operandi of these so-called advisory firms whose only aim is to lure you and earn from you.

There is a rule of probability that applies here.

First, they will generate new inquires every day as much as possible and advise you to go for the trial which can last from 1 day to 3 days.  They do not give trials usually more than that whether the trials got right or wrong. So usually they will look for a good number of potential customers who can pay after getting the trials.

Now what they do is, suppose they have 40 trial customers on any day. They will apply the 50-50 probability rule. They will send a buy call of the XYZ stock to 20 customers and sell call of the same stock to remaining 20 customers.  Now either of it will be proved right.  Suppose if the stock rises after the call, those 20 customers will feel they got 100% accurate call and they may think about opting for subscription service in the future. The remaining 20 will obviously discontinue it as the call did not work for them.

Now some customers out of these 20 customers will not go for subscription on the basis of this 1 day trial, some will do.  So now this advisory company will again repeat the same trick on those 20 customers.  They will get divided into again two groups of 10 each. One group will be given a buy call of some stock/commodity and another will be given a sell call of the same.  Now as you know, any one of the call is going to be right. Here, those 20 people were already given 1 so-called ‘successful’ trial and out of them now 10 persons have taken 2nd successful trial. Now this advisory company will again ask for subscription money from these 10 persons claiming that they were given ‘two sureshot trials’ as promised.

Now if some customers ask them to give more trial, again they will repeat the same trick, divide these 10 into two groups of 5+5 and then again give buy call to one and sell call to another group of 5. Thus, as you can predict, 20 customers out of those 40 trial inquiry people are given 1 so-called ‘sureshot’ call, 10 are given 2  constant successful trial calls/tips and 5 are given 3 constant successful trial tips! So at the end of 3 day trial period these 5 people are going to go for a subscription for sure.

Now you would have realized how easy it is to give 100% accurate calls without having any knowledge on the subject, and this was the sole purpose of this writeup to make you aware of such fraudulent companies and not getting into the trap of their malpractice and cheating.

Beware of them...and rely only on your knowledge and experience.

Friday, 22 January 2016

22012016



Today posting the charts of Nifty Future and MCX Crude Oil mini. Marked the most possible trade entries per system on them.

Monday, 11 January 2016

Nifty Future 11012016




There was a with-trend outside gap. Then it traded in a range for some time.  Took direct BO trade as marked, the reason being prices were just hanging close to DO/HOD then. Also the appearance of Bhole Shankar on TV gave confidence to enter long. Booked it around 7570. Later again took direct BO of HOD then.  Booked it at LOL. It seems Nifty has made a short term bottom today.

Please note I will not post for next few weeks.

Friday, 8 January 2016

Nifty Future 08012016


Today tried one long trade as marked on BOF of Range Low and booked close to HOD then. Later skipped the BOF of HOD as I was very comfortable with it. As a range trader, I feel more comfortable trading this kind of range days, I feel.

Thursday, 7 January 2016

Nifty Future 07012016


Tried four trades and nothing worked. First trade, I think, was a good trade taken but I messed up with SL trying to scratch and exited very early. Right SL placement is beyond RN and price never breached it. On second trade tried to go long thinking it will remain rangebound and will atleast give a PB to RN.  Then took two short trades expecting range BO. Again here messed up with SL placement. I think trading with the large quantity is playing a role here with SL placement. In order to avoid big loss, I am trying not to put the SLs at correct place.  Will have to work on that and find a better solution.

Wednesday, 6 January 2016

Nifty Future 06012016


Tried two short trades in the morning as there was good BO which did not work.  Then tried long as it had entered into the earlier range. It also ended as a scratch. Then stayed away and did not attempt any other trade.

Monday, 4 January 2016

Nifty Future 04012016


Took trades as marked.  First one was as BOF of PDL and BPB of DO. It did not work.  Took the long trade close to fag end thinking that BRN was able to hold on retest. Booked it at the target close to 7827 at Range High as marked.

Saturday, 2 January 2016

Trading lot quantity

http://www.lorianngarner.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/dream-big-2.png



As you all know, till now I have been trading Nifty intraday with maximum one or two lots for last couple of years. Now after trading with a very small number of lots and having developed tremendous confidence in self by successfully trading for a long time, in this new year I am increasing the quantity of lots by many fold. From this coming week I will trade Nifty options with 10 lots (750). I will trade next few months with this quantity and then decide about increasing it further.

Capital required:  I keep usually double the amount required in my trading account. To buy one lot of in-the-money Nifty option it normally requires around Rs. 10000. So to trade 10 lots, it will require around Rs. 1 lac. I usually keep double the amount, so the required capital will be Rs. 2 lacs. I have my own risk management which I have discussed with you time to time, and I strictly follow it.

Target: I will target 100 Nifty option points.  As you know, in-the-money options move normally half of what the Future price moves.  So if I were trading with Nifty Future, the same target will be around 200 Nifty future points. This is the minimum target that I would like to achieve and if I achieve that it would generate me a monthly income of Rs. 75000.

In next one to one and half years, my personal goal is to reach to the capacity of trading 100 lots of Nifty options with average profit target per month of 150 to 200 Nifty option points per lot, and generate a monthly income in excess of 10 lacs.

I have started working in that direction by increasing the current lot quantity.  I am fully confident and hope for the best.





Friday, 1 January 2016

Nifty Future 01012016


Today tried two trades.  First trade was an attempt to enter a bit early and that is why it tried as a BPB of DO ignoring the little space above it.  It turned out to be a good trade and could book very close to the perceived resistance around 7965 (last few days range high). Then it consolidated and tried a short trade as marked. It moved in favor some but reversed and I had to scratch. Missed the up move.

Last week I started an initiative called "Trade With Me" with my option blog subscribers, which is the most unique "Earn while you learn" program. Last week's results are here